Tariffs, fraud and tort reform reshape transportation insurance landscape
In its latest report Amwins has outlined how economic, regulatory and legal factors are shaping insurance conditions across the sector.
The 2025 Transportation State of the Market Report points to higher commercial auto premiums, increased litigation costs, tariff impacts and supply chain pressures, alongside limited new market entrants, reduced capacity and higher loss ratios in trucking, passenger transport and other closely scrutinized classes.
“These conditions demand deep specialization and creative placement strategies with the ability to move quickly in a tightening marketplace,” said Zach Bowling, executive vice president at Amwins Brokerage. “Our role is to help retailers navigate market conditions while securing critical coverage and delivering solutions that balance cost with the protection clients need.”
According to the report, commercial auto premiums rose 9.4%, with social inflation, nuclear verdicts and reinsurance costs cited as key drivers. Industry data shows the median nuclear verdict reached $44 million in 2023, more than double 2020 levels, a trajectory that is influencing excess liability pricing, retention strategies and available limits across commercial auto and broader casualty lines.
Carriers have responded by evaluating reserves and trimming per-risk and umbrella limits, pushing buyers to layer programs and accept higher attachment points where capacity is constrained.
Emerging risks and tort reform initiatives
The report flags emerging risks including rising cargo theft and AI-enabled fraud schemes aimed at logistics systems. It notes that adoption of electric and autonomous vehicles remains limited for long-haul freight.
On the legal front, states such as Florida and Georgia are advancing tort reforms intended to curtail nuclear verdicts, and Texas recently overturned a nearly $90 million trucking verdict, which the report says could influence future litigation strategies.
In Georgia, new law changes include revised negligent security liability standards, presentation of both billed and paid medical amounts to juries, admissibility of seatbelt evidence, and restrictions on anchoring tactics in arguing pain-and-suffering awards – developments brokers and insureds are watching for potential effects on claim severity and defense strategies.
In Florida, reforms enacted in 2023 eliminated one-way attorney fees and adjusted bad-faith and comparative negligence rules, steps that analysts have linked to improved market conditions for larger carriers.
A proposal now under consideration would introduce prevailing-party attorney fees in certain insurance disputes, which industry groups say could increase litigation costs and reintroduce pricing and reinsurance pressures if enacted. Retailers and insureds with Florida exposures may need to revisit limit adequacy and defense cost assumptions as the legislative outlook evolves.
Social inflation and tariffs impact
According to the report, commercial auto premiums rose 9.4%, with social inflation, nuclear verdicts and reinsurance costs cited as key drivers. Tariffs could increase new truck costs by up to $35,000, and replacement parts remain expensive, which may deter fleet upgrades.
Excess and surplus (E&S) specialty classes including passenger transport, waste hauling, last-mile delivery, cannabis delivery and hazmat are drawing heightened underwriting scrutiny, pushing more accounts into the E&S market.
Capacity remains scarce in New York, Georgia, California, Texas and Illinois, while New Jersey’s casualty marketplace continues to be challenging due to high-frequency claims and the increased limit requirement of $1.5 million.
Market conditions also reflect operational pressures tied to federal electronic logging device mandates and compliance, which have added equipment and monitoring costs—issues that can weigh more heavily on smaller fleets.
In tighter liability layers, some carriers have reduced primary and excess participation, requiring brokers to assemble towers with multiple participants and to manage attachment points carefully, especially in jurisdictions such as New Jersey where higher minimum limit thresholds affect structure and pricing.
The report flags emerging risks including rising cargo theft and AI-enabled fraud schemes aimed at logistics systems. It notes that adoption of electric and autonomous vehicles remains limited for long-haul freight.
Technology such as telematics, safety cameras and electric logging devices (ELDs) is contributing to improved underwriting outcomes and risk management for fleets. In the London market, domestic carriers are bundling auto physical damage and motor truck cargo with auto liability at reduced rates, creating competitive pressure and contributing to fewer placements in London.
Broader theft data underscore the exposure on the road: food and beverage products rose to 24% of global theft targets, and about 71% of incidents occur during road transport.
These patterns, alongside fictitious pickups and shipment misdirection schemes, informing cargo underwriting focus on commodity type, route risk, and controls such as verified pickup protocols and real-time visibility.